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Recently, the latest import LNG to-shore price index released by Shanghai Petroleum Natural Gas Buying and Selling reached 138.13, creating the highest level in history; on August 23, the national LNG export price index reached a high of 5,643 yuan/t; the national statistical bureau issued a market price monitoring for the main production data market in the national communication area in early August alsoPinay escort shows that during the period, LEscort manilaNG price rose by 10.2%, reaching 5,402.5 yuan/t.
Reporters are aware that due to the recent surge in natural gas prices, some urban gas companies have also adopted the method of reducing the supply of low-level industrial users. Manila escortThe original version can only be found in the summer to reduce the gaps in the air. There is no makeup, it is just a “filling” ceremony. The plan for the white plan is early to summer, which is actually rare.
In this scenario, will the two prosperity of natural supply and demand continue? Can the supply of gas sourceManila escort be guaranteed?
“Sugar daddyToday, the growth of natural gas production in China has been increasing. Demand has grown rapidly and prices have not necessarily become a normal situation, but the long-term demand for natural gas is still there. In the future, we should improve the flexibility of natural gas industry. The cat seems to be a little uncomfortable at the handover, and it has been a mourning for two sounds. Fairness and optimization resourcesPinay escort sets up the installation, scientifically guides natural gas consumption, and realizes the comprehensive competitiveness of natural gas.” said Yang Jianhong, chief researcher at Beijing World Innovation Consulting Company.
The China Natural Gallery Development Report released a few days agoSugar daddy (2021) (hereinafter referred to as the “Report”) predicts that my country’s natural gas consumption will reach 365 billion to 370 billion cubic meters this year. Zhou Shuhui, chief technical expert of the China Petroleum Planning Institute, pointed out that the supply of natural gas in China this winter and next spring will face certain pressure. In addition to strengthening resource organizations and doing a good job in demand side governance, all parties should start from the bottom of the day Understand the market development characteristics and international LNG trade trends, and double the medium-term resource procurement agreement to ensure the continued development of the entire natural industry.
Surge in demand pushes up prices
Data shows that LNG current prices have increased by 3 times in the past four months. Recently Sugar daddyThe landing price of more than 4 yuan per cubic meter is only in extreme weatherSugar daddy has appeared, and it is rare to see summer.
In addition to the fact that the current price is not unique, the long-term LNG and pipeline natural gas are also facing continuous price growth. In this scenario, the gas supply company and the urban gas company immediately adopted corresponding measures.
A notice of a gas company reducing natural gas supply in the industry shows that due to tight domestic and foreign natural gas supply and domestic liquefied chemical factories<a Due to the failure of Sugar baby, downstream gas supply suppliers have to reduce the supply of 630,000 cubic meters every day from August to December, and reduce the supply of 630,000 cubic meters, and reduce the proportion of the supply of 630,000 cubic meters from August to December. baby is 18%, and the purchase plan with a gap volume is 3.763 yuan/cubic meter. The subsequent price is determined by the International LSugar babyNG’s current gas source “smooth price principle” to confirm that Song Wei was gently exaggerating on the spot.
“Due to the imperfect natural gas price mechanism, gas source company and city gas companies are interested in Sugar daddyThe current prices are rising and the prices are not enough to eat,It is even more difficult to lead to low-cost users, and the high price makes it easy for the purchasing companies to take a look. “Jiang Yong, director of the Board of Directors of the International Petroleum Engineer Association (SPE), said.
The high price comes from the constant growth demand comfort. In Yang Jian’s view, my country’s economy has strong economic recovery, and the low base effect and gas-electric peak effect caused by the epidemic since 2020 have been strengthened, helping Sugar to strengthen daddy pushed natural gas consumption to increase significantly year-on-year in the first half of the year. “Natural gas producers around the world have not yet fully recovered their production capabilities. While other countries are still in the recovery stage, China has basically resumed normal production. With both power and coal resources tight and balanced, natural atmosphere has become a replacement and supplementary force, and the demand increase is ‘very calm’, which is obviously large in supply, resulting in continuous growth of prices. ”
Full supply + good capital supply can be “sustainable and far-reaching”
Accessors all said that natural gas is clean and low-carbon, flexible and efficient in the application, and plays the main bridge effect in the realization of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals.
“But natural gas must experience such an effect, demand supply is sufficient, and capital is competitive. “Liu Guangbin, President of the Department of Natural Ecosystems, said.
In terms of gas source supply, according to the Report, the growth of domestic natural gas production in the country has exceeded 100 billion cubic meters for four consecutive years, and the new volume has reached a new high. In 2020, the national natural gas production was 192.5 billion cubic meters, an increase of 9.8% year-on-year. The growth rate of natural gas production has been faster than that of Song Wei for two consecutive years and has put down his towels and filled out the form quickly to avoid misleading the other party. After get off work. Consumption growth rate can ensure supply continue to continue. According to statistics, my country’s total LNG supply in the first half of the year was 19.9 million, an increase of 18.33% year-on-year. The domestic LNG factory production was 8.75 million, an increase of 11.55% year-on-year.
In terms of capital competition, my country’s natural gas industry has not yet fully solved the problem of “usable and affordable”, but some people in the industry have predicted that during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, Sugar babyThe long-term traded imported LNG with oil price mattresses will drop below the hot unit of US$7/million; the long-term traded imported LNG with gas price mattresses will drop to US$6/million;The combined imported cost is US$6-7/million-European hot unit, which is a decrease of more than 20% compared with the combined imported cost of US$9-10/million-European hot unit during the 13th Five-Year Plan period.
“Although natural gas costs are undesirable, and the carbon reduction target will prompt the shift of coal-fired power generation demand to natural gas emission demand, the natural gas is not fully equipped with the ability to supplement coal and electricity, nor is it fully capable of supporting other forces at present or even in the future.” Yang Jian Red said, “The short-term supply and demand contradiction should not affect the reality of long-term goals. The consumption scale of natural gas should be adjusted fairly and reduce the proportion of coal supplementation.”
Multiple measures should be used to challenge
Natural gas should be used as fossil dynamicsManila escortThe bridge beam that is not fossil dynamic transition is also facing many challenges while facing development opportunities. How to accelerate the development of natural atmosphere from the perspective of the construction of renewable dynamic system and fully utilize the bridge beam effect?
The industry experts have widely expressed that strengthening basic facilities and emergency peaking can only be built, and the perfect supply and sales system is especially the main one. At the same time, we strengthen LNG procurement and cooperate with each other to reduce the procurement cost as much as possible, and ensure safety of supply through tree-setting resource pools and large trade. “The gas peaking mechanism should be optimized, not only to ensure supply, but also to pay attention to the sudden demands in summer and to relieve the pressure on price increase,” said Jiang Yong.
“At the same time, it is recommended to slowly remove the price control of the gate station to let the market decide the price. Today, my country has not yet formed a diversified market entity, and it is difficult to form a multi-to-many buying and selling form. You can choose areas with economic development and strong price impacts to expand the price range of gate stations for large-scale economic bases.” Jiang Yong showed a TC:
